There’s a lot at stake during Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday

Today’s Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday shopping bonanzas have huge political significance this year as retail events emerge as a key downturn. and inflation indicators.

So far, so good. Bargain hunters came out in force for black friday salesand Cyber ​​Monday is expected to be much larger. But now that consumers are showing signs of reducing their spending, will this boondoggle be enough to save retailers’ Christmas and prevent the U.S. economy from contracting or even falling into recession?

The White House is paying attention. Consumers have become pessimistic about the economy, the data shows. At the same time, President Biden’s poll numbers have fallen, and the economy is seen as a glaring weakness.

Biden’s advisers are responding. Last weekend, they pointed to The strong Black Friday data is a sign of the economy’s resilience. Still, inflation remains a particularly sore point for voters. According to The Washington Post, the White House has began tracking complaints about inflation posted on social media.

The Federal Reserve will also be watching. Inflation remains well above the central bank’s 2 percent target, prompting Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell to signal that policymakers will likely keep borrowing costs high longer in an effort to cool inflation. prices. This month’s retail data could be a factor in how the central bank approaches its interest rate policy next year.

Here are some takeaways from Black Friday, including where people are shopping and how the hobby is changing.

The American consumer continues to spend:

  • Black Friday sales increased 2.5 percent in the US compared to last year, according to The Wall Street Journalciting Mastercard SpendingPulse, which measures in-store and online sales.

  • Retail foot traffic increased 2.1 percent in the same period. Will that be enough?However, to save America’s beleaguered shopping malls or its commercial real estate sector?

  • Online shopping was the big winner. E-commerce sales rose 7.5 percent to $9.8 billion. according to Adobe Analytics.

But Black Friday was different from previous years:

What to see: The emergence of the so-called social commerce, which is big in Asia. TikTok is trying to bring the practice to the US and convert users of the short video app into buyers.

There’s a new addition to Wednesday’s DealBook Summit: Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen will join Andrew for a wide-ranging video interview on US-China relations, Taiwan independence, and chip diplomacy. For more information about the event, Click here.

Israel and Hamas could extend their ceasefire. Hamas said it would seek to extend a pause in fighting after freeing Israeli hostages over the weekend. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said he was open to a continuation if more hostages were freed. On the other hand, Elon Musk we meet today with Netanyahu and the hostages’ families as he faces accusations of amplifying anti-Semitism in X.

President Biden will skip the UN climate summit. A White House official said the president would not attend COP28, which begins Thursday in Dubai and is expected to be attended by King Charles III, Pope Francis and leaders from more than 100 countries. No reason was given, but advisers suggested Biden’s work on the war between Israel and Hamas and in Ukraine was behind the decision.

TikTok’s parent company is reportedly planning to retire from video games. ByteDance, the Chinese Internet giant, lay off hundreds of workers in its gaming division and is looking to sell titles, according to Reuters. also can sell a studio He bought it for 4 billion dollars. He is a black eye for ByteDance, which had tried to compete with a rival Chinese tech titan, Tencent.

Disney’s latest animated film fails to live up to expectations. “Desire” was predicted to win up to 50 million dollars at the global box office in its opening weekend, behind the latest film “The Hunger Games” and “Napoleon.” That’s bad news for Disney, where expensive movies — “Wish” cost about $200 million, excluding marketing costs — have underperformed.

The Supreme Court will hear a landmark case this week that could determine the future of the SEC’s internal enforcement arm and have serious consequences for the way other regulators operate.

It all started with an enforcement action against a hedge fund manager. About a decade ago, the SEC charged George Jarkesy, an investment advisor and conservative media personality, with securities fraud. Jarkesy was found guilty in an administrative proceeding overseen by an administrative law judge. But he won a subsequent challenge to that process in federal court, saying the Seventh Amendment guaranteed the right to a jury trial.

The SEC has challenged that ruling. The agency argues that the right to a jury trial is limited for civil actions and that Congress did not make a mistake by creating the agency this way. The defendants, however, maintain that these procedures favor the agencies.

Most judges have shown an inclination to limit the agency’s power. And this is just one of several cases challenging the power of federal regulators. The Supreme Court is also mulling over the future of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and whether to overturn a principle that requires judges to defer to agencies’ interpretations of administrative rules.

Regulators are on edge. Some, including the FTC, may conduct civil proceedings in domestic courts overseen by administrative law judges. But If the Supreme Court rejects the SEC’s defense of its administrative process, other agencies would become vulnerable to similar challenges.

An earlier ruling had already made legal challenges to regulatory power more likely. In unanimous Supreme Court rulings last year in two related cases against the SEC and the FTC, the justices said companies could immediately sue the agencies in federal court rather than waiting for the administrative case to be concluded first.

Executives and business groups want the high court to go further. The Chamber of Commerce, Business Roundtable and others filed an amicus curiae brief urging the justices to stop overreach of a vast “administrative State”. Executives and investors, including Elon Musk and Mark Cuban, have also weighed in, arguing that the SEC’s internal processes “lead to unequal and unfair results.”

The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Wednesday. A decision is expected before this term ends in June.

Last month, a Missouri jury returned a verdict that promised to disrupt the $100 billion American home buying and selling business. The National Association of Realtors and two large brokerages were ordered to pay at least $1.8 billion for keeping agent commissions artificially high.

The verdict, if it stands, could rewrite the American real estate industry. And, according to The Wall Street Journal, it started with a phone call by a consumer advocate in Minnesota:

George Farah, then a partner at Cohen Milstein, took the call with the advocate who had spent decades investigating practices in the industry. Farah says he talks easily to his defenders about case ideas and has sometimes had to listen to a 45-minute soliloquy about how park squirrels are creating shortages by hoarding nuts.

But this time Farah easily saw the potential for a major antitrust case. “Come on, this is just staying here,” he remembered thinking. “I was surprised to see that hadn’t happened yet.”

Farah, who has since started his own firm with a couple of other attorneys, said he looked at all the rules in the NAR’s roughly 175-page manual and focused on the requirement that homes listed on a multiple listing service must advertise the compensation offered to the buyer. agent. Plaintiffs’ attorneys would ultimately argue that the rule, in combination with some others, allowed the industry to conspire to keep commissions high, in part by allowing buyers’ agents to steer clients away from homes where sellers are offering a lower commission.

Christina Lagardepresident of the European Central Bank, about how her son lost large investments in cryptocurrencies despite her many warnings about the risks.

Data on oil, climate change and inflation will be in the spotlight. This is what you should look at.

Tomorrow: The Conference Board releases its latest report on consumer confidence. Additionally, Workday, CrowdStrike, and Intuit report results.

Wednesday: The Federal Reserve’s latest “beige book” report is scheduled to be released, detailing economic activity in 12 regions. Before that, Germany, which is teetering on the brink of recession, will release its consumer price data for November.

Salesforce, Snowflake and Dollar Tree also report.

Thursday: COP28 is scheduled to begin in Dubai, coinciding with an OPEC+ meeting, which had been delayed four days. in the midst of disagreements about possible cuts in oil production. The price of Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, is down this morning, having fallen more than 10 percent over the past month amid slower demand and a relative easing of geopolitical tensions over the war between Israel and Hamas.

Inflation hawks will be keeping an eye on two releases on both sides of the Atlantic. The first is the eurozone CPI for November. Then there is the so-called core deflator of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of price trends.


  • Investors plan to move forward with a OpenAI employee takeover bid, testing faith in the AI ​​startup’s future after last week’s leadership drama. (FOOT)

  • Jeff Zucker’s proposal to buy The Telegraph newspaper, a bid backed by Abu Dhabi, is likely to lead to greater scrutiny of the emirate’s media investment strategy. (FOOT)


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